Houston Housing Market Defies a Pandemic
Admin • January 2, 2021
Not even a devastating global pandemic could stop the Houston real estate market from shattering records as it crossed the finish line for the 2020 calendar year. Single-family home sales surpassed 2019’s record volume by more than 10 percent, even as the supply of homes withered to the lowest levels of all time.
According to HAR’s 2020 annual market report, single-family home sales rose 10.5 percent to 96,151. Sales of all property types for the year totaled 115,523. That represents an 11.6-percent increase over 2019’s record volume and marks only the second time in history that total property sales broke the 100,000 level. Total dollar volume for 2020 shot up 18.1 percent to a record-breaking $35.3 billion.
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Would-be homebuyers aren’t sitting on the sidelines because they don’t want to buy. They’re sitting out because they think they can’t. And sometimes, it’s their credit score that’s holding them back.
In 2025, affordability was the best it’s been in 3 years. And experts agree the momentum will keep going in 2026. And that’s based on their analysis of the key factors shaping the housing market in the year ahead: mortgage rates, inventory, and home prices. Lower Mortgage Rates Are Already Here Mortgage rates have already come down from their peak. By some counts, they dropped by almost a full percentage point over the course of the last year. And that’s a big deal, even if it doesn’t sound like it. But how low will they go? And should you wait for them to come down more? Here’s your answer. Forecasts suggest they’ll stay pretty much where they are now and hover in the low 6% range throughout 2026 (see graph below):
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And here’s where the mismatch is coming from. A few years ago, you could set any price and buyers would come running, no matter what the price tag said. Odds are, you’d still sell for over asking. But things are different now. Buyers have more options than they’ve had in years, so they can afford to be more selective. If your price feels even a little high to them, it’ll get overlooked in a heartbeat. And for the homeowners who had that happen, some end up pulling their listings instead of making a simple adjustment that could have changed everything. Which is a shame, honestly. Because a small price tweak is usually all it takes to bring buyers in and get the deal done. According to HousingWire , the average price cut right now is just 4%. Think about that. Other sellers are listing too high and giving up rather than dropping their price 4%. If they’d just started 4% lower, they may have already sold. So, before you list, talk to your agent about what’s working nearby. They’ll help you find the sweet spot that’s competitive, realistic, and still protecting your bottom line. And here’s the kicker. If you’ve been in your home for a while, your equity gives you room to set your list price more competitively and still come out way ahead. Unfortunately, those other sellers didn’t seem to realize that. 2. Don’t Rush the Process Another common misstep: expecting your house to sell in a weekend. Many sellers right now remember when homes sold in as little as hours – and they expect that to happen today. But in most markets, that’s not the reality anymore. It takes closer to 60 days to go from listed to sold, which is actually normal (see the gray in the graph below):
Affordability is still a challenge. There’s no question about that. But the market has given savvy buyers a head start. Mortgage rates have already come down over the past few months. And the drop we’ve seen saves you more than you’d think. How Much You’ve Already Saved, Without Realizing It Let’s put some real numbers to it. Rates peaked for the year in May when they inched above 7%. But since then, they’ve been slowly declining. Now, they’re sitting in the low 6s. And while that may not sound like a big deal, that change translates to real dollars. According to data coming out of Redfin, the typical monthly payment on a $400,000 home is already down almost $400 since May. That means if you’re buying a home now, you’re saving hundreds of dollars every month compared to what you would have been able to get earlier this spring. That’s real money that makes a real difference for buyers who paused their plans because they thought homeownership was out of reach. And while it may be tempting to wait even longer to see bigger savings, that’s a gamble that could cost you. Here’s why. Where Experts Say Rates Are Headed For starters, most experts say mortgage rates are likely to stay pretty much where we are today throughout 2026. So, there’s no guarantee we’ll see a rate much lower than what we have now. Only one expert forecaster is saying rates could fall into the upper 5s next year (see graph below):
Your house needs to stand out and grab attention from day one. That’s especially true when you consider why the number of homes for sale is up. Here’s how it works. Available inventory is a mix of: Active Listings: homes that have been sitting on the market, but haven’t sold yet New Listings: homes that were just put on the market Data from Realtor.com shows most of the inventory growth lately is actually from active listings that are staying on the market and taking longer to sell (see the graph below). The blue bars show active listings. These are the homes that are sitting month to month and not selling. The green bars are new listings, the homes that were just put on the market. And it’s clear there are fewer new listings compared to how many are staying on the market unsold.
Monthly Payments Are Coming Down One of the clearest signs of this shift is in monthly payments. The latest data from Redfin shows mortgage payments on a median-priced home are now $283 lower than they were just a few months ago (see graph below):
More Homes Will Sell With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below):
Why Builders Are Throwing in Perks There are more newly built homes for sale right now than there have been in years. And as a buyer, that can help you in two big ways. It gives you more options to choose from on the market, and it motivates builders to sell their inventory before they build more. That’s exactly why more buyers are scoring incentives like these: - Mortgage rate buydowns to shrink your monthly payment - Price cuts that make homeownership more attainable - Help with closing costs and even upgrades in some communities The best part is, a lot of builders are offering these perks right now. According to Zonda, nearly 6 out of 10 new home communities are doing incentives on to-be-built homes. And over 75% are doing the same for quick move-ins, which are homes that are already built and ready to move into. As real estate analyst Nick Gerli explains: “. . . builders are adjusting to the realities of the current housing market. They’ve cut prices 13 percent from peak, and are giving generous mortgage rate buydowns on top of that.” The big takeaway is: builders are motivated to sell. So, you could snag a lower price and maybe even a lower mortgage rate if you buy new. If you’ve been feeling priced out, these offers might be your way back in. You Have More Brand-New Options Than Normal Since there are more new homes on the market than usual, that gives you more options than you’ve had in years. Whether you’re looking for something turnkey or want to personalize a build, odds are there’s more available near you than you may realize. Even though the number of new homes for sale is up throughout the country, there are pockets where you have an even better chance to find a better price. According to Census data, here’s a high-level look at which parts of the country are seeing the biggest boost in newly built homes (see graph below):